SWODY2
SPC AC 140545
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
CNTRL/NRN PLNS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN STATES WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE SUBTROPICAL MID-LVL
WAVE OVER THE SRN PLATEAU NEWD...REACHING THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS ON
FRIDAY AND THEN MINORING OUT OVER THE GRTLKS SATURDAY. AT THE
SFC...A LOW WILL TRAVEL NWD FROM SD INTO SRN CANADA DURING THE AFTN
SATURDAY. TO THE E OF THE LOW...A WRMFNT WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH
THE PLNS AND CORN BELT WHILE A CDFNT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH THE
NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLNS AND CNTRL GRT BASIN.
...CNTRL HIGH PLNS TO THE NRN PLNS...
CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY MORNING
FROM PARTS OF THE DKTS SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLNS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE TIED TO ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION ASSOCD WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SUB-TROPICAL WAVE. MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
WILL SHOW A MARKED DECREASE AS THIS FEATURE ARRIVES... LIMITING
THREATS FOR SVR HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE
UPR MS VLY/UPR GRTLKS REGION SATURDAY AFTN...WITH THE UPSTREAM LWR
PLAINS EXPERIENCING SUBSIDENCE AND AN OVERALL DECREASE IN DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION PROBABILITIES INTO THE AFTN.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE HIGHER PLNS WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL
BE COMPARATIVELY STEEPER AMID INCREASING LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS.
LLVL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY LWR-MID 60S SFC DEW POINT WILL STREAM
NWD FROM THE SRN PLNS AND TO THE SE OF THE STRENGTHENING CDFNT.
STORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY BOTH ALONG THE SURGING FRONT AND IN THE
MOIST...INCREASING POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IN WY.
EVENTUALLY...OTHER STORMS WILL FORM FARTHER E ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
DKTS. STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE POST-FRONTAL...BUT AT LEAST
30-35 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE LWR PLNS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. FARTHER
W...HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL
WHERE 45-50 KTS OF SWLY H5 WILL EXIST.
FINALLY...LATE DAY STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NERN CO AS THE FRONT
SURGES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND UPR TROUGH APPROACHES. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BECOME ENHANCED AS ENE UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES BENEATH
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ORGANIZED STORMS MAY LAST WELL INTO THE
NIGHT WITH AN EVENTUAL SMALL MCS POSSIBLY MIGRATING INTO NEB THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY...CAPABLE OF HIGH WINDS AND HAIL.
...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
WEAK TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN KS...WRN OK AND
NWRN TX WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW TSTMS SATURDAY AFTN/EVE.
THIS REGION WILL BE WELL REMOVED FROM THE PRIMARY WLYS...BUT
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY RECOVER SOME IN WAKE OF
THE LEAD SUB-TROPICAL WAVE. SET-UP WILL PROBABLY YIELD ISOLD
MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS/HAIL. REMNANT OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE EWD WITHIN A 40 KT SLY LLJ INTO ERN KS/NRN OK
BUT WITH A DECREASE IN SVR INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT.
..RACY.. 08/14/2009
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