SWOD48
SPC AC 140837
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATE WEEKEND UPR SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPR GRTLKS REGION WILL
CONTINUE EWD INTO SERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...A
BROAD UPR TROUGH WILL EXIST THROUGH MID-WEEK FROM THE CNTRL/NRN
ROCKIES EWD INTO THE NERN STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL PLNS STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG IMPULSE DIGS
SEWD FROM NWRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE IS VARIED ON THE
TIMING OF THIS.
THE FRONT THAT FOLLOWS THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO
THE NERN STATES AND MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
TSTMS. A FEW SVR TSTMS WILL BE PSBL...ESPECIALLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...NAMELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
UPR MIDWEST.
MEANWHILE...WRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME QSTNRY ALONG SRN
EXTENT OF THE UPR TROUGH/STRONGER WLY FLOW ALOFT. COMPARATIVELY
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS AND RELATIVELY RICH
MOISTURE REMAINING INVOF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THREATS FOR SVR
STORMS DAILY FROM MONDAY INTO LATE WEEK. EACH RESULTING TSTM
COMPLEX WILL MODULATE THE FRONT AND LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT OF THE
MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY. THUS...PREDICTABILITY WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO NOT INCLUDE IN A MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK.
..RACY.. 08/14/2009
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