SWOD48
SPC AC 290840
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A CLOSED LOW MIGRATING EAST OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES COULD CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING/ENHANCED SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI
VALLEY DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
BUT...ANY SEVERE EVENTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN
RATHER MINOR...OR AT LEAST RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. MEANWHILE...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIVE
INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AMPLIFICATION WILL
PROBABLY OCCUR WITHIN AN INITIAL ZONAL STRONG POLAR JET NOSING
INLAND OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG
THE MODELS AND MREF MEMBERS BECOMES QUITE LARGE CONCERNING THIS
DEVELOPMENT AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN...WHICH HAS
A CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE LOCATION AND RISK OF ANY REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.
..KERR.. 08/29/2009
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