SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012234
ORZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-012330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CA...MUCH OF ORE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012234Z - 012330Z
ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL/SEVERE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DUE TO
ISOLD NATURE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
CU FIELD/CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN CA AND
MUCH OF ORE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING HAS EFFECTIVELY DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. A VERY
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF THE CNTRL CA COAST HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY EWD...ENHANCING MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA AND
PROVIDING SOME DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION IN CONVECTION...WHILE A SUBTLE
VORT MAX NOW MOVING NNWWD THROUGH NWRN NV/NERN CA IS AIDING IN
ASCENT. WV/GOES PWAT IMAGERY ARE INDICATIVE OF AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED STORMS. VERY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AS EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ENHANCES
DOWNDRAFTS FROM COLLAPSING STORMS...WHILE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT ISOLD MARGINAL TO SEVERE HAIL. STRONGEST
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS NRN CA AND WRN/CNTRL ORE WHERE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 30 TO 35 KTS ARE
JUXTAPOSED. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NNWWD WITH TIME...PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
..HURLBUT.. 08/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...REV...MFR...STO...PQR...
LAT...LON 41042005 39962022 40432114 41172217 41872313 42432365
43762335 44672226 45451854 45021736 44191834 43532007
42641990 41951989 41042005
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