SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032106
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-032230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO INTO W CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 032106Z - 032230Z
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF ANY INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE. BUT...TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR AN
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW...WHICH SEEMS
PROBABLE AT SOME POINT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS RAPIDLY RECOVERING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI
INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WHILE NEAR SURFACE/LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION
APPEARS MAXIMIZED ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION
...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE PREVAILING CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS LIKELY SUPPRESSING
RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF ONGOING ISOLATED INTENSE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF ST. LOUIS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT THIS
MAY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH 04/00-01Z...WHEN RUC/NAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY SUPPORT
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
ONCE THIS OCCURS...WHETHER IT BE EARLY THIS EVENING...OR
SOONER...MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40+ NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AND...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
850 MB JET IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.
..KERR.. 08/03/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...
LAT...LON 40499158 40699106 40008997 39358906 38848940 38759025
39049131 39499216 39749267 40189283 40369233 40499158
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