SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040046
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-040245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN WY...SWRN SD...WRN
NEB....EXTREME NERN CO.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 040046Z - 040245Z
SVR WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WITH BAND
OF HIGH-BASED TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL WY...HEADED FROM SRN
BLACK HILLS AND NRN NEB PANHANDLE. STG-SVR GUSTS ALSO MAY ACCOMPANY
SMALLER CONVECTIVE COLD POOL EXPECTED TO CROSS NERN CORNER OF CO AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS NEB. ADDITIONAL STG-SVR CONVECTION ALSO MAY
DEVELOP WHERE THOSE BOUNDARIES WILL MERGE -- LIKELY ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS NEB PANHANDLE.
SFC ANALYSIS AND REFLECTIVELY LOOPS INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW
OVER PORTIONS WESTON...NIOBRARA AND NWRN GOSHEN COUNTIES WY...MOVING
GENERALLY EWD 45-50 KT...WITH SOME RADIAL EXPANSION SEWD AND NEWD.
MEASURED GUSTS HAVE REACHED UP TO 72 KT...AT ROCHELLE HILLS RAWS
SITE NNE DGW...AND 51 KT AT DGW. SHORT-INTERVAL PRESSURE RISES UP
TO 5 MB HAVE BEEN MEASURED BEHIND LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE/DOWNDRAFT REINFORCEMENT OF ACCOMPANYING COLD
POOL IS LIKELY...WITH FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING HOT AND
WELL-MIXED FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. MODIFIED UNR RAOB AND RUC
SOUNDINGS EACH INDICATE 12-14 KFT DEEP SUB CLOUD LAYER WITH
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...BENEATH MRGL BUOYANCY -- I.E.
MLCAPE GENERALLY UNDER 500 J/KG.
..EDWARDS.. 08/04/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 42050536 42260473 42820436 43560447 43880434 43920311
43190154 40800086 40300150 40380236 40530328 41040259
42110291 42050536
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