SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072206
SDZ000-072330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 072206Z - 072330Z
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 672 THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD OVER
THE BLACK HILLS WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING WWD
FROM SURFACE LOW NEAR PIR THROUGH W-CNTRL SD /S OF RAP/.
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME E OF DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER
THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION IS SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN TSTM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NRN WY INTO
S-CNTRL/SERN MT. WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN SD.
AIR MASS IN IMMEDIATE WAKE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS MOIST AND
WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. OVERALL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE
IS RATHER STRAIGHT WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
..MEAD.. 08/07/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...
LAT...LON 45670393 45850358 45650288 44860210 43870215 43270256
43130337 43590391 45670393
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