SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072337
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-080130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...WRN NEB...SERN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 072337Z - 080130Z
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM SERN WY
INTO SERN CO...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD INTO SD. STRONG
SWLY FLOW AND MIXING HAS RESULTED IN VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH BASED CU AND A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES PRESENT.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET CORE WILL REMAIN WELL E OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING...WEAK SELY FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN MOISTURE ACROSS WRN
NEB AND INTO SERN WY/NERN CO. THE RUC AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATE A
WEAK SURFACE TO 850 LOW CENTER WILL MIGRATE INTO NERN CO FROM
00-06Z...MAINTAINING CONVERGENCE WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS
SLOWLY E. RELATIVELY LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS...SOME SPLITTING WITH LARGE HAIL...WITH A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
..JEWELL.. 08/07/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 43010131 41790147 40910189 40000249 39760337 39800389
39910475 39990529 40520545 41330553 41960552 42640504
42990481 43010131
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