MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1881

ACUS11 KWNS 140534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140533
NDZ000-140700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 140533Z - 140700Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS
MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY W OF 2WX IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO SWRN
ND EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
THROUGH DIK...N60 TO N OF DVL. TSTMS /LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/ ARE
DEVELOPING N OF THIS SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM DAWSON AND PRAIRIE
COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL MT INTO MCKENZIE AND DUNN COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL
ND. BASED ON REGIONAL VWP TRENDS...STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER WRN SD
APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WAA TO THE N OF
SURFACE FRONT...LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT.

00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING DATA AND RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE WHICH ARE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. WHEN
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

..MEAD.. 08/14/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 46420328 46920394 48350360 48990109 48839991 48119925
46680123 46420328

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