Saturday, August 15, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1897

ACUS11 KWNS 152353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152352
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-160045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-SRN SD/WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 706...

VALID 152352Z - 160045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 706
CONTINUES.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS/TRACK OF BOW AND GIVEN DOWNSTREAM MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXTENDING FROM SERN ND THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN SD INTO
MUCH OF NEB SUGGESTS A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED E/NE OF WW 706.

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS NRN/NERN EXTENT OF
WW 706...GIVEN BOWING STRUCTURE EXTENDING FROM SHANNON COUNTY SD TO
SHERIDAN COUNTY NEB PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. THIS BOW IS
TRACKING NEWD AT 40 KT IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM ERN ND SWWD INTO CENTRAL TO SWRN SD. THIS BOW WILL
EXIT NERN CORNER OF THIS WATCH AT 01Z...THUS THE NEED FOR A NEW WW
ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF SD/NEB.

ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG SRN EXTENT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH WAS SURGING EWD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE. AIR MASS
DOWNSTREAM OF ALL ACTIVITY IN THIS WATCH WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SPREADING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL NEB. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
EVENING GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY MAINTAINING NEW DEVELOPMENT.

..PETERS.. 08/15/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41210410 41830303 42830277 43700301 44110194 44660073
45359902 45119843 44259826 43189839 42359868 41419924
41209973 41000098 41000127 40990393 41210410

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