SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172240
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-172345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1907
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN CO...FAR NERN NM...FAR SWRN KS...OK/TX
PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 708...
VALID 172240Z - 172345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 708
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT HAS INCREASED AS TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESA
EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS. AREAL EXPANSION OF WW 708 HAS BEEN
COORDINATED WITH WFO AMA FOR THE REST OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR SERN CO/NERN NM INTO A
ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES IN SWRN KS...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.
ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE RATON MESA OVER
UNION COUNTY NM. GIVEN CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW AND DESTABILIZATION
WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THIS
CONVECTION...CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE PLAINS AND
RESULT IN ACTIVITY SPREADING E TO THE W/NW OF STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY INVOF AMA. GIVEN THE JUXTAPOSITION OF
50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1500
TO 2500 J/KG/...SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL
REMAIN LIKELY. SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..GRAMS.. 08/17/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36680375 37120334 37330240 37470110 37320017 36970021
36320058 35580118 35290164 35210210 35280248 35780329
36150353 36680375
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