SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192205
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-192300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...NJ...MD...DE...ERN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192205Z - 192300Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM SE PA EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN VA. LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A
WW.
22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ERN SEABOARD WITH AN EXTENSION OF LOCALLY MAXIMIZED MOISTURE WWD
ACROSS ERN VA AND MD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F. TWO LINES
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THIS MOIST AXIS WITH THE FIRST
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT IN ERN PA. THIS LINE OF STORMS
IS ON THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE SECOND LINE OF
CONVECTION IS LOCATED SWD ALONG A SFC TROUGH TO VERY NEAR THE COAST
OF VA AND ERN MD. WSR88D-VWPS IN BOTH AREAS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES WITH THE RUC INDICATING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN AREA WHERE MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY
ARE ESTIMATED BY THE RUC IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.
..BROYLES.. 08/19/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 37397689 37377606 37907533 38877489 39497416 40467401
41077441 41127499 40857615 40547661 40157667 39597650
38917671 38137710 37637711 37397689
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