SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212210
AZZ000-212315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 212210Z - 212315Z
ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF S-CNTRL AZ INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORM-SCALE
ORGANIZATION TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE NEAR TERM FOR A
POSSIBLE WW. A SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE WAS RECENTLY ISSUED TO ACCOUNT
FOR INCREASING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BAND 20 MI NW OF
TUS MOVING WNW AROUND 20 KTS. KALK/KTUS/KFHU RECENTLY OBSERVED
35/41/54 KT WIND GUSTS RESPECTIVELY. 18Z TUS RAOB SHOWED MODESTLY
STRONG ESELY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE H6-H5 LAYER ON THE ORDER OF 25-35
KTS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MEAN STORM PROPAGATION TO THE WNW ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE ONLY MODEST 3-6KM
LAPSE RATES OBSERVED WITH TUS RAOB /NEAR 7 DEG C PER KM/...TEMPS
HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AHEAD OF ONGOING
CONVECTION--YIELDING NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.
..SMITH.. 08/21/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 31381097 32421433 32621442 33521441 34171399 34051162
33210934 32550921 31390917 31381097
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