Saturday, August 22, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1957

ACUS11 KWNS 222203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222203
NCZ000-SCZ000-222300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222203Z - 222300Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL NC OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB LOW NEAR CHARLOTTE NC WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL NC. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING VERY NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND SWD INTO THE
WARM SECTOR AT THE NORTH END OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
ANALYZED BY THE RUC. THE WSR88D-VWP FROM RALEIGH SUGGESTS 30-35 KT
OF VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT MAINLY DUE TO STEADILY INCREASING SPEED
SHEAR WITH HEIGHT IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE RUC SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP IN
SRN NC WHICH ALONG WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 08/22/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34487785 34517888 34638066 35428079 35828049 35967989
35947908 35947833 35837753 35487732 35017732 34697743
34487785

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