SWODY1
SPC AC 080100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT MON SEP 07 2009
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE FROM SRN NEB SSWWD INTO TX/NM...THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE DIURNAL
STABILIZATION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE BOTH AMPLE ASCENT FOR STORMS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE AMBIENT SHEAR
SUCH THAT A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING.
FARTHER N...CONVECTION HAS YET TO DEVELOP INVOF THE COLD FRONT NOW
EXTENDING FROM NRN ND SWWD INTO WY. LOW-LEVEL CAPPING PER EVENING
RAOBS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS
THAT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED.
THUS...WHILE ANY WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH...CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
PENDING STORM INITIATION -- WHICH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION AS
40-PLUS KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
...TN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION AND VICINITY...
A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTION IS FORECAST THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL
LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION SLOWLY OCCURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CONTINUE OVER SRN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...AND INTO
NRN AL. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR -- AIDED BY 25 KT
WNWLYS AT MID LEVELS...A LIMITED/LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND MAY
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
...COASTAL NC...
COMPACT SURFACE LOW CONTINUES MOVING NNEWD ALONG/JUST OFF THE NC
COAST...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OUTER BANKS REGION OVERNIGHT.
EVENING MHX /MOREHEAD CITY NC/ RAOB -- IN THE NRN QUADRANT OF THE
LOW -- DEPICTS VERY MINIMAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ATOP A WEAKLY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE THIS SUGGESTS ONLY WEAK/DISORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT IN THE RAOB AND IN MHX WSR-88D
VWP REVEAL LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION
WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT. WHILE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH AN UPDRAFT...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL
2% TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS COASTAL NC.
..GOSS.. 09/08/2009
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