SWODY1
SPC AC 160526
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL GULF CSTL REGION...
QSTNRY UPR LOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH WILL RETROGRADE SWWD TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CORRESPONDING SFC LOW WILL SIMILARLY
DVLP WWD WITH THE E-W ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF CSTL REGION.
SYSTEM HAS BECOME BAROTROPIC AND LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION...SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. EXPECT THAT TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG LLVL CONFLUENCE LINES TRAILING THE LOW AND MOVE
SLOWLY N AND NWWD. WEAK LLVL VEERING WINDS INVOF THE E-W BOUNDARY
MAY OFFER A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO AS STORMS
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...ISOLD HYBRID MICROBURSTS
MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES.
...SRN ROCKIES...
UPR LOW OVER UT WILL DIG INTO NRN AZ ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER MID-LVL
SPEED MAX WRAPS SEWD FROM ERN NV TOWARD ERN AZ/WRN NM. LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN AS MID-LVLS COOL AND STRONG SFC HEATING OCCURS ALONG
WRN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME RESIDENT OVER NM/CO. TSTMS WILL
FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TRACK. HERE...VERTICAL SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS AND MODEST BUOYANCY
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER STORMS. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER
STRUCTURE AND MAGNITUDE OF MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ISOLD
SVR WINDS/HAIL.
..RACY/JEWELL.. 09/16/2009
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