SWODY1
SPC AC 151245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009
VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST...MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL
REMAIN BYPASSED BY THE WLYS THROUGH EARLY WED AS BROAD UPR RDG
LINGERS OVER THE MUCH OF THE LWR 48. WITHIN THE RDG...TWO UPR LOWS
WILL MODULATE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST
LOW...NOW OVER NRN UT...SHOULD SETTLE SLOWLY S TO THE AZ BORDER BY
12Z WED...WHILE THE SECOND REMAINS NEARLY STNRY OVER THE ARKLATEX.
AT LWR LVLS...RELATIVELY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...WEAK...NEARLY STNRY LOW WILL CONTINUE INVOF THE
AR/LA BORDER...WITH ATTENDANT STNRY FRONT ALSO PERSISTING E/SE TO
THE FL PANHANDLE.
...GRT BASIN INTO CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS...
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM WILL PREVAIL FROM THE ERN
GRT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS...ON ERN
SIDE OF UPR LOW. SIMILAR TO MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...WITH PW AROUND .75 INCH. HEATING WILL...HOWEVER...YIELD
MODEST SBCAPE...WITH VALUES TO 1000 J/KG EXPECTED OVER THE CO/NRN NM
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT HI PLNS.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR LOW LIKELY WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY GIVEN DECELERATION OF THE FEATURE AND
FACT THAT IT IS NOW A CLOSED SYSTEM. BUT...COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW
TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH SHOULD YIELD ISOLD TO SCTD AFTN/EVE
STORMS FROM VICINITY OF MID LVL COLD POOL OVER UT ESE ACROSS CO INTO
NE NM. MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE AN
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SVR THREAT....BUT BRIEFLY SVR STORMS WITH HAIL
AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR.
...CNTRL GULF CST/LWR MS VLY...
PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF RECENT
DAYS...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING E/NE AROUND ARKLATEX UPR LOW
SERVING TO FOCUS DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF
CST/LWR MS VLY. A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR THIS
AFTN AND EVE GIVEN VERY MOIST AIR /PW AOA 2 INCHES/ AND SBCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG. WHILE A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO OR SVR WIND GUST...MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAK
LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE ROBUST SVR THREAT.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 09/15/2009
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