SWODY1
SPC AC 130044
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL GULF COAST...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS BRIEFLY INTENSIFIED THIS EVENING OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NWD
THROUGH S-CNTRL LA. DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NWD THROUGH SWRN LA LIKELY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE
FORMATION OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE AS WELL AS THE STORM
INTENSIFICATION.
WHILE AIR MASS INVOF SURFACE LOW AND RETREATING WARM FRONT IS QUITE
MOIST...00Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE WEAK LAPSE RATES WHICH WERE
LIMITING MLCAPE TO LESS THAT 1000 J/KG. MOREOVER...THESE DATA
INDICATED RATHER WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...EXCEPT IN THE .5-1 KM
LAYER WHERE 20-25 KT ELY/SELY FLOW WAS OBSERVED. WHILE...SOME BRIEF
ROTATION IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS FORMING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
AND WARM FRONT...ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR.
..MEAD.. 09/13/2009
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