SWODY1
SPC AC 150045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2009
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...UT...
TSTMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO GRADUAL
STABILIZATION OF AIR MASS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ACTING ON RESIDUAL STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUSTAIN A FEW
STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
SOME HAIL. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED.
...CNTRL GULF COAST...
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY W OF POE IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT
WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY...
EXTENDING NNEWD THROUGH ERN AR INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL. VORTICITY LOBE
ROTATING AROUND PARENT UPPER SYSTEM HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RECENT
INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS OVER SRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF MS. 00Z JAN
SOUNDING IS QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING MLCAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 30
KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
GIVEN THE MOIST...UNCAPPED AIR MASS...SAMPLED WIND PROFILE IS
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WHICH HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST HOUR. AS SUCH...A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT FOR
A BRIEF TORNADO OR STRONG WIND GUST WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT GREATER
SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL.
..MEAD.. 09/15/2009
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