SWODY1
SPC AC 120522
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WWD INTO WY/MT...IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC IS FORECAST TO AID IN PUSHING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NJ REGION EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC. WHILE THE WEAK
CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TX IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE...GRADUALLY
LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY ON THE ERN/SRN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM.
...SERN TX/SRN LA COASTAL REGION...
AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL...MODELS DEVELOP WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER SRN/SERN TX. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
ACROSS TX AT MID EVENING...IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT A WEAK
WAVE...LOCATED ABOUT 250 NM SE OF GLS ALONG WARM FRONT...WILL LIFT
NWD NEAR OR INTO FAR SERN TX/SWRN LA SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MASS...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...SHOULD SHIFT NWD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LOW/WARM FRONT...WITH MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE. THE
STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ALOFT AND VEERING WINDS IN THE
LOWER 3 KM MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW
ROTATING STORMS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS. THOUGH
CONVECTION MAY INHIBIT NWD MOTION OF FRONT...IF LOW/WARM FRONT MOVE
INLAND...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIND/TORNADO EVENT.
..IMY/JEWELL.. 09/12/2009
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