SWODY1
SPC AC 181948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2009
VALID 182000Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM PARTS OF NE
NV...SRN ID WHERE RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK.
ANOTHER CHANGE IS TO ADD WRN SC INTO THUNDER FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION IN ERN GA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD WITH TIME.
ELSEWHERE...ALL OUTLOOK AREAS REMAIN THE SAME.
..BROYLES/ROBINSON.. 09/18/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2009/
...SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER BENIGN SPLIT FLOW REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS...WITH THE
PRIMARY NRN STREAM CONFINED TO SRN CANADA AND NRN NEW ENGLAND...AND
A MUCH WEAKER SRN STREAM FROM AZ/NM EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE LARGELY REMOVED FROM THE
STRONGER NRN STREAM...WHILE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE
PHASED WITH THE WEAKER SRN STREAM. WITHIN THE SRN STREAM...WEAK MID
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS ARE PRESENT OVER SRN NM AND WRN MS...THOUGH
TRENDS IN UPPER AIR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGE SUPPORT CONTINUED
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THESE SYSTEMS. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
AGAIN EXPECTED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE OVER NM...AND THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AS WELL AS WITH
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN FL. ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED BY RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND/OR POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THE SRN STATES WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME.
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