Wednesday, September 2, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021629
SWODY1
SPC AC 021626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO ONGOING OUTLOOK...WITH MODELS CONSISTENT IN SLOW
SSEWD MOTION TO MID/UPPER LOW NOW OVER SD. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES
INDICATE SYSTEM CONTAINS SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN
ITS CORE. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT AXIS OF MARGINAL MLCAPE BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH/N-S SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL-WRN SD/NEB. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED BELT OF NWLY
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG SWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER CIRCULATION WILL
MAINTAIN MODEST TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE/DEVELOP SWWD INTO GREATER
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LIKELY SUSTAIN AT LEAST
A LOW-END SLGT RISK OF HAIL/WIND GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND
POSSIBILITY OF A SUPERCELL OR TWO.

FARTHER SW...EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT GETS INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS
DIURNAL STORMS DEVELOP NEAR LEE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE OFF
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD OVERCOME WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITY THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

...SRN AZ...
COMPLEX FORECAST ACROSS AZ TODAY WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING SEPARATE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUMES PERSISTING OVER SRN AND NRN AZ...WITH AREA
OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN. HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN
THESE AREAS OF GREATER MID LEVEL MOISTURE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND OVERALL INCREASE IN PW/S SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER
CORES...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AZ WHERE PW/S WILL BE APPROACHING 1.5
INCHES.

..EVANS/GRAMS.. 09/02/2009

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