Wednesday, September 2, 2009

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020538
SWODY2
SPC AC 020535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2009

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF THE NATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER MID/UPPER WESTERLIES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...LIKELY TO BE IMPACTING PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY...IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY LIFT TO THE
LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AS THE UPSTREAM PATTERN AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE THAT
GENERALLY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES INTO EARLY FRIDAY... WHILE A WEAK
CYCLONIC REGIME LINGERS EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.

HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...GENERALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
WHERE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN FOR
THIS PERIOD. BUT...MOISTURE ADVECTION NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES...AND LARGELY EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY DRIVEN MOISTENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL PROBABLY ALSO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
A BAND OF MODEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW--AROUND 25-35 KT AT
500 MB--APPEARS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DIGGING REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION/SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS SUFFICIENTLY FOR AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL OR TWO WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS...GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NCEP SREF...INDICATES THAT
STRONGEST INSTABILITY--CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
1000-2000+ J/KG--IS MOST LIKELY TO FORM ON THE NOSE OF A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IF THIS
OCCURS...HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
MOST VIGOROUS STORMS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WEAKENS
CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

..KERR.. 09/02/2009

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