Saturday, September 5, 2009

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 050530
SWODY2
SPC AC 050529

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2009

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF MT THIS PERIOD. ELSEWHERE
THE PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL
PERSIST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN
ROCKIES.

...MT...

CIRCULATION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN ELY TRAJECTORIES OVER THE SRN U.S. AND NRN
GULF...LIMITING ANY APPRECIABLE NWD RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL CHARACTERIZE THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL MT WITH MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG DESPITE STEEP
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN CAPPED BY
EWD ADVECTION OF THE EML MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE LIFT
WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE AUGMENTED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH
BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INITIATION OF A FEW
STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING OVER WRN MT. STRENGTHENING
MID-UPPER FLOW ATTENDING THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND INVERTED-V
BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY SERVE AS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

...ELSEWHERE...

SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN U.S.
AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
WEAK UPPER TROUGH. ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...BUT WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT.

..DIAL.. 09/05/2009

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