Sunday, September 6, 2009

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060519
SWODY2
SPC AC 060516

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT SUN SEP 06 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NWRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH FROM MT INTO SASKATCHEWAN DURING THE DAY AND PROVIDE IMPETUS
FOR A COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. FARTHER EAST THE
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

...NRN PLAINS AREA...

SLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...BUT ELY TRAJECTORIES OVER THE
SRN STATES AND NRN GULF WILL LIMIT NWD RETURN OF RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL LIKELY CHARACTERIZE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. DIABATIC WARMING AND ADVECTION OF
THE EML ABOVE THE MODEST MOIST AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A ZONE OF
1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. CAPPING INVERSION
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT DEEP FORCING
WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION OVER THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER
DEEP LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL WITH
SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT.

..DIAL.. 09/06/2009

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