SWODY2
SPC AC 131729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ENEWD ON MONDAY FROM N TX/OK
TOWARD THE OZARKS REGION OF SRN MO/AR. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS LA. AT 12Z MONDAY...A SURFACE WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN LA ESEWD TO SWRN MS AND INTO THE
NERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY N/NEWD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...REACHING
SERN AR TO THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z TUESDAY. DESPITE THE
CONTINUATION OF WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS AREA...TROPICAL
MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOWER 70S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST
WEAK DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. TSTMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST REGION...E/SE OF
UPPER LOW...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT...SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ATTAIN
ROTATION WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.
...ERN NV/UT/NRN AZ...
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INLAND ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST DURING SECOND
HALF OF DAY 1 PERIOD WILL DEAMPLIFY ON MONDAY AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND BECOMES CUTOFF FROM UPPER LEVEL FLOW. COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREADING EWD ATOP BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER... LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD TEND TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN MID-UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THIS REGION
WILL SUPPORT TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITHIN BASE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD PROMOTE STRONGER SHEAR FROM SRN/ERN NV INTO NRN AZ AND
UT. THIS SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL...
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS...WHILE 30-40
DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR WEAK
INSTABILITY...THIS OUTLOOK WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
..PETERS.. 09/13/2009
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