SWODY3
SPC AC 050726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
NWRN U.S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE INTO THE DAKOTAS. FARTHER EAST A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE SERN STATES.
...NRN PLAINS AREA...
SLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...BUT ELY TRAJECTORIES OVER THE
SRN STATES AND NRN GULF WILL LIMIT NWD RETURN OF RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL LIKELY CHARACTERIZE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AN EML WILL ADVECT EWD ABOVE THE
MODEST MOIST AXIS RESULTING IN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT WITH A
CAP LIKELY INHIBITING CONVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY. DEEP FORCING
WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE AND DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS.
STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL
WITH SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELL STORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD
SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT.
..DIAL.. 09/05/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment