Sunday, September 20, 2009

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 200713
SWODY3
SPC AC 200710

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SWD MIGRATION
OF UPPER LOW THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT.

...TX COAST INTO SABINE RIVER VALLEY...

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TUESDAY
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GULF COAST. WARM SECTOR AIR
MASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WHILE FRONT WILL OUTRUN STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDENT WITH
UPPER LOW...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE DAY TWO FORECAST /MONDAY SEP
21ST/...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LAG WARM SECTOR TO THE N.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SRN FRINGE
OF UPPER JET STREAK OVER CNTRL TX MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS/CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..MEAD.. 09/20/2009

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