SWOD48
SPC AC 050859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2009
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE GFS...ECMWF AND MREF ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH DAY 5 WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN STATES.
ON DAY 4 MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS BEFORE EJECTING INTO SRN
CANADA EARLY DAY 5. AXIS OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ATTENDANT FRONT. SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST DAY 4 INTO DAY 5 OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT. STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN POST FRONTAL...AND CONFIDENCE IN A
HIGHER END SEVERE EVENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND DAY 6 MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT INDICATE OVERALL TREND
WILL BE FOR A TROUGH TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S. AS AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE DROPS SEWD INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION.
..DIAL.. 09/05/2009
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