Tuesday, September 15, 2009

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150859
SWOD48
SPC AC 150858

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DAYS 5-6...IN
FORECASTING AN INCREASINGLY-PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT THROUGH DAY 6 /SUN. SEPT.
20/...AT WHICH POINT BOTH MODELS BEGIN DIGGING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.

TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM DAY 6 ONWARD WITH
THIS TROUGH -- AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS -- INCREASE WITH TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ONCE
THIS FRONT PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TO
WHERE A REASONABLE POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS WOULD
EXIST. HOWEVER...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT ARE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/TIMING OF
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 09/15/2009

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