SWOD48
SPC AC 200827
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
BEYOND D4 /WED SEP 23RD/...LATEST ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF CUT-OFF LOW INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS. THESE DISCREPANCIES APPEAR TO ARISE FROM MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM
IMPULSES WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW AS EARLY AS
D5 /THU SEP 24TH/. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION IS
ALSO WELL DEPICTED IN MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI AND 500 MB
HEIGHT STANDARD DEVIATION PLOTS. AS A CONSEQUENCE...NO SEVERE
WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED IN THIS OUTLOOK.
..MEAD.. 09/20/2009
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