Wednesday, September 30, 2009

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300850
SWOD48
SPC AC 300850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THROUGH DAY 6 /MON. OCT. 5/...IN SHIFTING A CLOSED LOW
NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA WHILE A
SECOND/LARGE LOW DIGS SWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION THROUGH DAY 5. BROAD SWLY FLOW ON THE SERN SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE LEADS TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CO VICINITY DAY
5...WITH THE SURFACE LOW THEN PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 6.

SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE DAY 5 AND INTO DAY
6...PARTICULARLY INVOF THE KS/OK VICINITY AHEAD OF THIS LOW.
HOWEVER...WHILE SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION...QUESTIONS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL SUGGEST ATTM THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
MAY REMAIN LIMITED. BEYOND DAY 6...INCREASING DIVERGENCE BETWEEN
THE MODELS PRECLUDES ANY ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 09/30/2009

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