SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081110
KSZ000-081345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 AM CDT TUE SEP 08 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN KS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 081110Z - 081345Z
RAINFALL RATES MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING
HOURS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL/POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS WITH LOCALIZED 1+ IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE.
ALONG/AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE...PERSISTENCE OF SLOW MOVING/HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING DEEP
CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN KS THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF A WEST-EAST
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. MODERATELY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DERIVED WIND PROFILE DATA FROM
VANCE WSR-88D/VICI PROFILER IS SAMPLING 30-35 KT SWLY FLOW AROUND 1
KM...WITH THE 05Z LAMONT OK OBSERVED RAOB SAMPLING A MOIST SOURCE
REGION AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY /1700 J PER KG
MUCAPE/ AND HIGH PW /1.7 INCHES/. OTHERWISE...WEAK MID/HIGH LEVEL
FLOW WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS/ECHO TRAINING
THROUGH THE MORNING...AS STEADY UPLIFT CONTINUES TO OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER IMPULSE IN VICINITY OF THE EFFECTIVE
FRONT/SURFACE COLD POOL. RAINFALL RATES MAY MODESTLY/SLOWLY DECREASE
AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO GRADUALLY ABATE...BUT
LOCALIZED 1+ IN/HR RATES AND HEAVY RAINFALL/POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN NONETHELESS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.
..GUYER.. 09/08/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 38029976 37979758 37569503 36999548 37079960 38029976
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