MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2004

ACUS11 KWNS 091639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091639
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-091815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT WED SEP 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN...WRN NC...NW SC...NRN GA...FAR NE MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091639Z - 091815Z

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS INITIATE AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED AREA OF
CUMULUS FROM NE MS EXTENDING ENEWD INTO WRN NC. AS SFC TEMPS WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S F THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MCD
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. RUC
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER ERN
TN AND THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND SWWD INTO NE MS AND EWD ACROSS
PARTS OF WRN NC AND NWRN SC. AS STORMS INITIATE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...THE PREFERRED ZONE FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ON THE SWRN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHERE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST
ENOUGH SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT...THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN
MULTICELLULAR. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT LINE-SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 09/09/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 34158161 34338118 34568089 34848079 35488078 36008077
36308102 36488144 36488178 36398209 36188244 35958294
35458419 35408561 35338639 35018685 34598692 34338663
34208616 34158540 34138450 34118303 34058209 34158161

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