MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 102154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102153
NDZ000-SDZ000-102330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND INTO WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102153Z - 102330Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF DISCUSSION AREA BY 00Z.
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

SYNTHESIS OF SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE A
NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 21Z. THE MOST
NOTABLE WAS PRIMARY WIND SHIFT WHICH EXTENDED FROM MOT-E OF 2WX-GCC.
OTHER MORE SUBTLE BOUNDARIES WERE APPARENT FROM DVL SSWWD TO ERN
KIDDER/WRN STUTSMAN COUNTIES ND AND OVER TOWNER AND BENSON COUNTIES
ND. MODIFICATION OF 19Z BIS SOUNDING FOR CURRENT BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT CAP HAS BECOME QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...MAIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LAGS WARM SECTOR WELL TO THE W OVER CNTRL MT.
THUS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PROCESSES WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STORM INITIATION PRIOR TO
00Z.

CURRENT BIS VWP SHOWS RATHER WEAK WINDS BELOW 3 KM...WITH A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN THE 5-7 KM LAYER TO 40-45 KT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...THIS
KINEMATIC PROFILE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. VERTICAL
SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT INTO WRN SD...THOUGH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES MAY STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..MEAD.. 09/10/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 44820393 46750253 48030191 48860115 48970016 48969941
48729830 48299799 47299887 46489950 45700011 43890231
43690341 44820393

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