SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140029
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-140200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740...
VALID 140029Z - 140200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740
CONTINUES.
A HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN MT THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE
SEVERE THREATS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER
BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING.
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN ERN MT ARE BEING
SUPPORTED BY A LOBE OF VORTICITY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND RUC
ANALYSIS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN CNTRL MT. LIFT IS
ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A LOW-LEVEL JET
LOCATED NEAR THE ND AND MT STATE-LINE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG WITH
A MID-LEVEL JET OVER SRN MT IS HELPING TO CREATE VERTICAL SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL. ROTATING STORMS MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGER HAIL. AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY LINE-SEGMENTS THAN CAN ORGANIZE LATER THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 09/14/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 48980823 47990842 47890886 47720885 47610855 47580793
47040798 46490778 46500725 46280697 45670686 45670667
45160672 45160630 45780622 45770496 46140492 46130457
46020454 46020437 45950436 45950415 45830410 45830404
48990404 49000823 48980823
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