MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2014

ACUS11 KWNS 141609
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141608
UTZ000-141815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141608Z - 141815Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF UT. A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED WITH THE 1630Z DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY NEARING THE CA/NV
BORDER VICINITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER NV
TODAY...WITH AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPPER JET EXIT
REGION EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ACROSS UT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES AS MUCH AS
0.75-0.85 INCHES...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND AMPLE HEATING
ACROSS MUCH OF UT WILL YIELD MUCAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG. MODERATELY
STRONG...BUT BACKING...MID LEVEL FLOW AND 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TENDENCY FOR QUASI-ORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS/LINES...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. PORTIONS OF UT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK...ALTHOUGH THE NEED FOR A WATCH LATER TODAY
IS STILL UNCLEAR AT THIS JUNCTURE.

..GUYER.. 09/14/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...

LAT...LON 40551386 41191255 39911103 37721067 37321185 37611364
40551386

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