MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2017

ACUS11 KWNS 151614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151614
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-151815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151614Z - 151815Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO MAY
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MS AND SOUTHERN AL/ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE. LIMITED/MARGINAL NATURE OF
THE RISK IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.

AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY...SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS IN THE WARM/VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. 12Z OBSERVED
RAOBS AND MORE CONTEMPORARY WSR-88D DERIVED WINDS ONLY REFLECT
MODEST LOW LEVEL SRH /UP TO 100 MS PER S2/ WITH RESPECT TO UPDRAFT
ROTATION. NONETHELESS...WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...THIS COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE...PERHAPS FAVORED
ALONG A NW-SE AXIS COINCIDENT WITH A SUBTLE WARM/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/AL...WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
MODESTLY BACKED. WHILE WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND WEAK DEEP LAYER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE/PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 09/15/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 33409043 32058689 30668638 30188840 30708960 31859064
33409043

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