SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152004
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-152230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AR/EXTREME NORTHEAST TX/NORTHERN LA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 152004Z - 152230Z
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES OF 1+ IN/HR
POSSIBLE...MAY INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AR/EXTREME
NORTHEAST TX/NORTHERN LA INTO THE EVENING.
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE
ARKLATEX...WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
AR/LA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS TRENDS IMPLY A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN AR VIA AN INVERTED
TROUGH/CONFLUENCE AXIS ON THE IMMEDIATE NNW SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
AS A VERY MOIST INFLUX CONTINUES INTO THE REGION...WITH GPS DERIVED
PW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A QUASI-FOCUSED
AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL/ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR ECHO TRAINING MAY
MATERIALIZE ACROSS WESTERN AR/FAR NORTHERN LA/EXTREME NORTHEAST TX
IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/CONFLUENCE ZONE.
..GUYER.. 09/15/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 35959340 36029276 35069238 32669290 33089433 34739436
35959340
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