SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302039
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-302215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN KS SWWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE OK/TX
PNHDLS AND THE TX S PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 302039Z - 302215Z
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM E
OF GCK SSWWD TO NEAR BGD AND AMA TO W OF LBB. THIS FEATURE HAS
MIXED FAIRLY RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...
HOWEVER RECENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IT HAS DECELERATED
/EVEN STALLED OVER WRN KS/. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO
STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING EWD THROUGH CNTRL INTO ERN
CO...WHICH IS ALSO CORROBORATED BY GRADUALLY BACKING PROFILER/VWP
WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS E OF DRYLINE.
AS MENTIONED IN 20Z OUTLOOK...TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY W OF DRYLINE
HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
OK PNHDL INTO FAR SWRN KS. THUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL AXIS AND PERHAPS SUSTAIN ITSELF EWD INTO STRONG CAP.
CURRENTLY...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR STORM INITIATION APPEAR TO BE:
1) NEAR DRYLINE UNDULATION OVER MEADE COUNTY KS...AND 2) NE-SW
DRYLINE SEGMENT FROM E/NE OF BGD SSWWD TO N OF LBB. SHOULD
DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION BECOME SUSTAINED...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL EVOLUTION WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 09/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34210146 34280210 35030243 36920085 37990044 38720056
38949987 38359927 37139938 35460029 34220112 34210146
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