Wednesday, September 30, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2048

ACUS11 KWNS 302301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302301
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-010030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB AND SOUTHERN SD/FAR NORTHERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302301Z - 010030Z

TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD/PERHAPS
NORTHERN KS...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL/WIND. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCLEAR...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NEB...ALONG/JUST NORTH
OF A DEEPENING 994 MB SURFACE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING TRIPLE
POINT...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY N-S ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN CO AND A DRYLINE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEB
TO WESTERN KS. THIS SAME INCREASING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS MASS
CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEB OWING TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS VIA IMMINENT ARRIVAL OF
APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPPER JET EXIT REGION.
EVEN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASING NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION /ALBEIT 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...MODIFIED 18Z OBSERVED
RAOB FROM NORTH PLATTE AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RUC/NAM GUIDANCE IMPLY
THAT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
NONETHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES/COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT AND A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SOME WELL ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

..GUYER.. 09/30/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...CYS...

LAT...LON 43070264 43450053 42079923 40169883 39880008 40680093
41370285 43070264

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