SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302317
TXZ000-NMZ000-010015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302317Z - 010015Z
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN/SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO ISOLATED/MARGINAL FOR A WW.
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL FEATURE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CA IS BEING SWEPT
E-NEWD INTO SRN NM AND WRN/SWRN TX. MEANWHILE...STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE COMBINED WITH THE WELL
MIXED PBL IS RESULTING IN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AS HIGH BASED STORMS
MOVE E ACROSS MAINLY SW TX. AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING
EWD...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING CINH VALUES. IN ADDITION...THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN STORM
INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING. FOR THESE REASONS...THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED...AND
SHOULD NOT REQUIRE A WW.
..GARNER.. 09/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31970369 32490307 32900206 32620123 30880199 30710307
31200382 31970369
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