SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010031
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-010200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 750...
VALID 010031Z - 010200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 750
CONTINUES.
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 750 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF
SEVERE HAIL.
A RELATIVELY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. A SUPERCELL ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK /BECKHAM AND
ROGER MILLS COUNTIES AS OF 0020Z/ MAY CONTINUE TO THRIVE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AS IT CROSSES THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS...WITH LATEST
VICI PROFILER DATA INDICATIVE OF AROUND 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. OTHERWISE...A SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP APPEARS TO
BE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE /REFERENCE 00Z OBSERVED NORMAN AND TOPEKA
RAOBS/...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED STORMS MAY INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT VIA AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REGIME AND AN EASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT.
..GUYER.. 10/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37910006 38679898 38489715 35099845 35420041 37910006
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