SWODY1
SPC AC 272333
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009
VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AMENDED TO ADD SLGT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN SC
...AMENDMENT...
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS BEEN ADDED FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR DETAILS...REFER TO TORNADO
WATCH 777 OR SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2145.
..KERR.. 10/27/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009/
...FL PANHANDLE INTO NW FL/SRN GA...
INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING
AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NEWD INTO OH VALLEY TONIGHT...AS A
150-175 KT HIGH LEVEL JET MAX CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY A LARGE AND DEEP
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ARKLATEX
TROUGH WAS BRUSHING THE FL REGION AND AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR PANAMA CITY FL AT 15Z...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ENEWD ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER.
AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT LIFT SLOWLY NWD
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON...SUBSTANTIAL
LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORS ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
OR TWO...REFERENCE WW 776 AND MCD 2141. DESPITE WEAKER FORCING AND
NEGLIGIBLE HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF CURRENT WW...CONVERGENCE NEAR WARM
FRONT AND DEGREE OF SHEAR MAY ALSO SUPPORT A SMALL TORNADO THREAT
INTO SERN GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES ACROSS THE REGION WILL DECREASE
BY DARK AS THE PRIMARY FORCING SHIFTS INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND
SPREADS WEAK SUBSIDENCE INTO THE REGION.
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