SWODY1
SPC AC 100049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN APLCNS...
...CNTRL/SRN APLCNS...
BKN LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APLCNS EARLY
THIS EVENING...WELL AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CDFNT LOCATED OVER THE LWR
MS VLY. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRANSLATE ENE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLC OVERNIGHT WITH SRN FRINGES OF STRONG...PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW SKIRTING THE MID-ATLC AND SERN STATES.
INSPECTION OF 00Z RNK/GSO/FFC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE APLCNS. SO DESPITE MOIST
LLVLS...THE POOR MID-LVL LAPSE RATES /H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 4
DEG C/ WILL LIKELY BE HOSTILE AT SUPPORTING AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF
SVR WEATHER EAST OF THE APLCN CREST.
HOWEVER...THROUGH MID/LATE THIS EVENING...THERE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FLOW TO SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT COULD
GIVE LOCAL DMGG WIND GUSTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APLCNS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT ONLY ISOLD WIND POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM INTO SWRN
VA...WRN NC AND NRN GA OVERNIGHT AS LLVLS COOL/STABILIZE AND FORCING
PASSES FARTHER OFF TO THE NE.
..RACY.. 10/10/2009
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