SWODY1
SPC AC 130530
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
WSWLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NWD ACROSS EAST TX AND LA. A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NRN MEXICO AND
WEST TX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH A CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR INCREASE MLCAPE
VALUES INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST FURTHER NORTH IN THE
OZARKS BENEATH OF THE BELT OF PREVAILING WLYS. IF MORE VERTICAL
SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW CAN BE REALIZED THAN IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE SCENARIO IS
CONDITIONAL UPON MOISTURE RETURN AND THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.
...CA COAST...
A WELL-DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL AND NRN CA TODAY.
DIFFLUENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE COASTAL AREAS OF CA. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...A WEAKNESS IN LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.
..BROYLES/JEWELL.. 10/13/2009
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