SWODY1
SPC AC 231227
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...EASTERN GULF STATES THRU THE UPR OH VLY/APPALACHIANS...
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN-MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INTENSIFYING
SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. AS
THIS OCCURS...STRONG SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW OF 30-50+ KT IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN A BROAD SWATH AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG AND JUST WEST
OF THE APPALACHIANS REGION. DESPITE THIS FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT BEST.
ONGOING...BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED/INTENSIFIED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR SRN AL/FAR WRN FL
PANHANDLE /REFERENCE SWOMCD 2130/ AS SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGAN TO
CATCH UP WITH LEADING LINE OF STORMS. AS THE FRONT OVERTAKES THIS
ACTIVITY...CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AND POSSIBLY INCREASE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SPORADIC STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN NARROW
INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE COAST INTO FAR SERN AL/SRN GA
THROUGH THE MORNING. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT ALSO REMAINS NON-ZERO...DESPITE THE WEAK
INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDING AT TLH.
THE RETURN OF 60+ F DEW POINTS NWD ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS MAY SUPPORT WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE DAY. IF LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO OVERCOME MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MEAN FLOW FIELDS
AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SPORADIC
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THIS
LIMITED THREAT COULD CONTINUE ACROSS AND TO THE LEE OF THE
ALLEGHENIES/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO THE
UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.
..EVANS/BOTHWELL.. 10/23/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment