SWODY1
SPC AC 191942
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2009
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GREAT BASIN...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING SEVERAL
TSTMS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD TO ENEWD ACROSS
PORTIONS NRN NV...UT AND SRN ID. WITH SOME DIURNAL SFC
HEATING...BUOYANT PROFILES ARE NARROW ON FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION AND 100-400 J/KG
MLCAPE. LOW LEVEL AMBIENT FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...ALTHOUGH
STG WINDS ALOFT WILL BOOST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STG GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT LACK OF RICHER
THETAE/INSTABILITY INDICATES SVR POTENTIAL IS TOO ISOLATED AND WEAK
TO WARRANT INTRODUCING AOA 5-PERCENT GRID PROBABILITIES ATTM.
...NWRN CA...
ADDED SMALL GEN THUNDER AREA FOR MRGL POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD-CORE REGION OF STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE MAXIMIZED INTO MID-LATE AFTERNOON ATOP SFC TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS 50S F. MLCAPES WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK -- BELOW 100 J/KG
IN MOST AREAS -- BUT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL.
..EDWARDS/COOK.. 10/19/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2009/
TROUGH NOW ENTERING NRN CA WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD LWR CO RIVER VALLEY
BY TUE AM...WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE NOW NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
DAMPENING AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NRN PLAINS.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
DIURNAL GENERALLY WEAK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
SOUTHERN LIMIT OF STORM FORMATION SHOULD BE ALONG AND N OF CYCLONIC
SIDE OF POLAR JET...WHERE MID LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER...AND
LAPSE RATES STEEPER.
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