SWODY1
SPC AC 211956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
--- UPDATES ---
PRIMARY GEN TSTM LINE ADJUSTED IN MINOR WAYS ALONG OUTLOOK PERIPHERY
TO REFLECT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...LACK OF MORE ROBUST
INSTABILITY...AND OF JUXTAPOSITION OF MRGL BUOYANCY WITH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...INDICATES SVR THREAT STILL APPEARS TOO WEAK AND
CONDITIONAL FOR PROBABILITIES. OVER PAC NW...INLAND PENETRATION OF
MOST FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...AWAY FROM SUPPORTIVE
LOW-LEVEL THETAE...HAS MADE THUNDER RISK TOO ISOLATED/MRGL FOR
MAINTAINING GEN TSTM OUTLOOK.
..EDWARDS.. 10/21/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/
UPPER LOW OVER NRN NM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD TODAY REACHING WRN KS BY
12Z THU. A BROAD SLY/SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW IS DRAWING IN BOTH A
MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS AND CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM T.S.
RICK NOW MOVING ONTO THE WRN MEXICO COAST.
RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PCPN SRN PLAINS
TODAY...SPREADING NEWD ACROSS KS AND MO TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN SUPPORT OF STRONG CONVECTION DUE
TO GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE SURFACE HEATING WITH THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS SERN TX DO SEE A RETURN OF 70 DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT...THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY CONCERN FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND THE ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT SUGGESTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
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