SWODY1
SPC AC 090059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2009
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR OH VLY SWWD TO
CNTRL/SWRN TX...
...LWR OH VLY SWWD TO TX...
STRONGEST CORE OF THE SWLY LLJ /50-55 KTS/ IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
FROM NERN TX INTO THE LWR OH VLY THIS EVENING. 00Z LZK HODOGRAPH
ALREADY EXHIBITED SUBSTANTIAL LLVL SHEAR WITH 0-1KM SRH OVER 200
M2/S2. QUESTION ALL DAY HAS BEEN WHETHER TSTMS COULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT EARLY
EVE DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL AR NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY MAY EVOLVE
INTO SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO RISK OVERNIGHT.
WRMFNT...MARKING THE LWR-MID 70S SFC DEW POINTS...MAY TRANSLATE A
LITTLE FARTHER N/NE TO NEAR/N OF THE OH RVR VLY OVERNIGHT.
THUS...HIGHEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WOULD BE FROM NERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL
NEWD INTO FAR SRN IL...WRN KY AND PERHAPS SWRN IND.
TO THE SW...A LARGE BAND OF TSTMS EXISTS FROM NWRN AR SWWD INTO WRN
N TX. A FEW CELLS HAVE MAINTAINED A BALANCE BETWEEN COLD POOL AND
THE HUMID INFLOW...RESULTING IN SPORADIC RISKS FOR DMGG WINDS.
OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HAS STRONGLY RESEMBLED AN
ANAFRONTAL TYPE SITUATION AS THE PRIMARY POSITIVE-TILT UPR TROUGH
REMAINS WELL-UPSTREAM. EXPECT THE SITUATION WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE
SAME OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG UPGLIDE CONTINUING ATOP A DEEPENING
FRONTAL INVERSION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD TSTMS. COLD POOL/FRONT
WILL SPREAD SEWD INTO WRN AR AND NRN TX THROUGH 12Z. 00Z DFW
SOUNDING SHOWED A MODEST LID JUST BELOW H7...SO IT IS UNCLEAR ON HOW
EXTENSIVE THE NOCTURNAL SFC-BASED STORM THREAT WILL BE...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...AND MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR BOWING STORM
CLUSTERS/PRE-FRONTAL STORMS...LIKELY PRODUCING MAINLY DMGG WIND
GUSTS.
LASTLY...ISOLD SUPERCELLS CONTINUE OVER THE ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
WHERE AIR MASS HEATED CONSIDERABLY TODAY. STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
INGESTING PARCELS THAT CONTAIN INCREASING CINH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD
CNTRL TX THROUGH LATE EVENING. UNTIL THEN...DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP AND/OR STRENGTHEN ALONG ERN EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS SPREADING INTO W TX. THUS...THE DMGG WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS FAR E AS CNTRL TX.
..RACY.. 10/09/2009
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